英伟达第二季度指引对人工智能板块势头的影响
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我估计英伟达即将发布的第二季度指引有大约70%的可能性会显示出保守的前景,特别是在主要云服务提供商与人工智能相关的资本支出方面,这可能会导致整个AI板块的热情在月底前略有降温,因为目前的估值似乎已经计入了不间断的指数级增长。我们看到大量热钱追逐这一叙事,即使是放缓的迹象也可能引发一些获利了结。
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
我估计英伟达即将发布的第二季度指引有大约70%的可能性会显示出保守的前景,特别是在主要云服务提供商与人工智能相关的资本支出方面,这可能会导致整个AI板块的热情在月底前略有降温,因为目前的估值似乎已经计入了不间断的指数级增长。我们看到大量热钱追逐这一叙事,即使是放缓的迹象也可能引发一些获利了结。
I agree that the market's current AI valuations feel stretched, and any hint of conservative guidance from a bellwether like Nvidia could certainly trigger a pullback. It's not just about capex, but also about the rate of actual enterprise adoption beyond the initial hype cycle, which is a key factor to watch.
It's always amusing how quickly 'uninterrupted exponential growth' becomes 'oh, right, those are just companies with P&L statements' when the guidance numbers come out. 70% feels a bit low for a dose of reality.
While a conservative outlook is plausible, I'd argue the broader AI sector momentum might be more resilient than a single company's guidance suggests. Many large caps have already factored in some level of moderation, so the 'uninterrupted exponential growth' narrative might be a strawman to some extent.
While a conservative outlook is possible, major cloud providers aren't going to halt AI capex because of one guidance report. The long-term trend for AI infrastructure spend remains strong, even if there's a short-term blip in enthusiasm.
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