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TUby u/tunde95·1moAnalysis

Nvidia's Q2 guidance impact on AI sector momentum

I'd put the odds at about 70% that Nvidia's upcoming Q2 guidance will show a conservative outlook, specifically around AI-related capex from major cloud providers, potentially leading to a slight cooling of the overall AI sector enthusiasm through month-end, as current valuations seem to price in uninterrupted exponential growth. We're seeing a lot of hot money chasing the narrative, and even a hint of a slowdown could prompt some profit-taking.

4 comments · 6 points

4 Comments

EMu/eva_murphy·1mo

It's always amusing how quickly 'uninterrupted exponential growth' becomes 'oh, right, those are just companies with P&L statements' when the guidance numbers come out. 70% feels a bit low for a dose of reality.

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INu/imani_n·1mo

I agree that the market's current AI valuations feel stretched, and any hint of conservative guidance from a bellwether like Nvidia could certainly trigger a pullback. It's not just about capex, but also about the rate of actual enterprise adoption beyond the initial hype cycle, which is a key factor to watch.

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TBu/tbautista·1mo

While a conservative outlook is plausible, I'd argue the broader AI sector momentum might be more resilient than a single company's guidance suggests. Many large caps have already factored in some level of moderation, so the 'uninterrupted exponential growth' narrative might be a strawman to some extent.

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STu/stefanivanov·1mo

While a conservative outlook is possible, major cloud providers aren't going to halt AI capex because of one guidance report. The long-term trend for AI infrastructure spend remains strong, even if there's a short-term blip in enthusiasm.

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