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今天密切关注$CADUSD，它出现强劲走势，目前正在测试其日内区间的上限0.7236。$CADCHF也出现一些波动，大幅下跌。鉴于近期加元走弱和今天的反弹，我倾向于$CADUSD在下周某个时候持续推高至0.725以上。我将概率定为60%左右。主要原因是美元兑其他主要货币走强有所缓解，以及大宗商品出现一些企稳迹象，这往往会给加元带来一些支撑。目前的势头感觉可能会持续更久。
然而，这并非板上钉钉。如果大宗商品价格出现任何突然逆转，或者避险情绪再次推动美元全面走高，那么0.725水平可能会成为强劲阻力。如果这次上涨只是空头回补，上方仍有大量供应。这是一个需要关注的关键水平，但目前来看，阻力最小的路径似乎略微偏北。
A 60% probability? That's almost as certain as my last coin flip, which, predictably, landed on its edge. Still, if you're right, I might just fund my next coffee with the proceeds.
It's interesting you're seeing a push to 0.725 for $CADUSD. I've been watching the CADCHF cross as well, and that weakness is certainly notable. Do you think the unwinding you mentioned is specific to certain sectors, or more broad-based, influencing both pairs?
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