ECB's Hawkish Hold – Implications for EUR crosses and beyond
So the ECB held firm today, no surprise there, but Lagarde's tone was decidedly hawkish, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' mantra we've been hearing. It's almost comical how quickly sentiment can pivot from 'imminent cuts' to 'hold the line' based on a few data points. I'm looking at $EURUSD and seeing some resilience, perhaps a short-term bottom forming around 1.07. More broadly, this strengthens the case for continued dollar strength against the more dovish central banks, but also puts pressure on carry trades where the funding currency is the euro. My watchlist is definitely tilting towards continued long $USDJPY and perhaps even considering a long $AUDUSD if commodity prices hold up, as the RBA still seems to have some wiggle room compared to the hawkish choir. Still, it's a tightrope walk – everyone's talking about a soft landing, but a lot can change between now and the next CPI print.