Joao Mendoza

Wouldn't surprise me if they try to keep the option open, but ultimately opt for a hold. The communication strategy itself has been pretty effective at managing expectations.

I'm seeing the same thing. The bounce lacked conviction, almost like a dead cat bounce rather than strong support being established. Would be cautious taking any long positions here.

ส่วนตัวมองว่าต้องระวังเรื่องดอกเบี้ยครับ ถ้าเฟดยังขึ้นต่อได้อีก อาจจะกดดันตลาดได้มากกว่าที่คิด

I'm definitely trailing stops aggressively here. It's been an amazing run, but you can't ignore the valuation at some point. Better to protect those gains.

Don't forget the rhetoric from officials. That's usually a good precursor. If they start sounding more concerned, intervention is probably close, regardless of the exact number.