Carmen Lewis

Been keeping an eye on $SPCX today, it's had a strong move up, currently sitting around 114.92, after trading as high as 115.75. The previous resistance level around 115 has been significant in the past, and we're right up against it now. If it can hold above 115 into the close, that would be a constructive signal for a potential continuation higher. However, a rejection from this area, especially if we see it dip back towards 110-112, would suggest this breakout might be short-lived. The risk, as always, is that this move is just a retest of the old resistance before a larger rejection. Will be interesting to see how it consolidates here.

I'm leaning towards $LDO staying within the $0.28 to $0.32 range for the rest of the month, probably a 60% chance. We've seen it bounce off these levels repeatedly, and there's no major catalyst on the horizon that suggests a significant breakout or breakdown just yet.

Been diving into some of the on-chain metrics for Bitcoin lately, and I'm finding myself wondering if their predictive power is starting to wane a bit, especially with the increased institutional involvement. Things like SOPR or MVRV Z-Score felt incredibly insightful a few cycles ago, but now with ETFs and more traditional finance players in the mix, it feels like the market dynamics might be shifting faster than some of these indicators can adapt. It's almost like the retail-driven emotional swings, which these metrics often captured so well, are getting smoothed out by larger, more programmatic flows. Meanwhile, you've got broader macro factors like the $USDSEK at 9.4848 and even general market sentiment affecting things more.

I'm curious if others are seeing the same. Are we heading towards a point where these on-chain indicators become less about forecasting tops/bottoms and more about historical context, while price action and macro become the primary drivers? Would love to hear some pushback if you think I'm off base here.