EURCHF: Assessing the probability of a move back to 0.94 by month-end

Been watching $EURCHF closely, and with the recent push above 0.935, it's worth considering the likelihood of a more sustained move. We're currently trading around 0.93598, having put in a day range of 0.93484–0.93659. The SNB's recent cut has certainly provided some tailwind for EUR, weakening the CHF. However, the broader macro picture still points to a relatively dovish ECB, even if they're a bit more hawkish than the SNB.

My take for the probability of $EURCHF touching 0.94 before month-end is around 60%. The reasoning hinges on a few factors. First, the technicals show a decent base forming, and the momentum from the SNB cut isn't fully priced in, in my opinion. Second, any further signs of softening inflation in the Eurozone could push the ECB to signal further cuts, which might cap upside. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected run of European economic data could fuel a move higher. The key risk, of course, is any significant geopolitical event or a sudden shift in global risk sentiment that typically strengthens the CHF as a safe haven. It's a nuanced setup, but the path of least resistance feels like a grind higher for now.