Fed's hawkish stance, jobs data, and my watch for regional banking exposure

แปลอัตโนมัติจากต้นฉบับ · อ่านต้นฉบับ (English)

Last night, the Fed spoke hawkishly again, and I saw futures markets drop quite a bit. Coupled with the strong jobs data from Friday, it seems the 'Higher for Longer' view will be with us for a while longer.

My focus remains on the impact on US regional banks, especially those tied to Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans, as funding costs will become even more expensive. The $SPCX dropping 3.41% also reflects some market concern.

I'm watching to see how much this will affect sentiment in our domestic financial sector, as liquidity is all interconnected. This includes the Yield Curve, which has been inverted for a long time, but we haven't seen any serious systemic problems yet. Just keeping an eye on where the stress might emerge. The $USDSEK falling 0.56% is interesting; it seems the market isn't really pulling money out of risky assets in a big way, or perhaps it's just a minor pullback. $USDMXN is completely stable at 17.326, as if nothing happened.

Personally, I'm still looking for opportunities to accumulate defensive stocks or those with good dividends during this period of high market uncertainty.

1 comments · 1 points
SIu/siripornrattanakorn·5h

เห็นด้วยเลยครับเรื่อง Higher for Longer น่าจะลากยาวกว่าที่หลายคนคิดไว้เยอะ ส่วนเรื่อง CRE นี่ก็น่าจับตาจริงๆ ยิ่งถ้าดอกเบี้ยสูงไปนานๆ มีสิทธิ์เห็นปัญหาลามไปอีกหลายจุดเลย