Watching USO at this 117-118 level, what's next?
Been keeping an eye on $USO for a bit now, and this 117-118 area is starting to look pretty crucial. We've seen it bounce off this zone a few times in the past, acting as decent support. Today, we're right back in it, trading around 117.98, after dipping to 117.51 earlier. The daily candle is painting a somewhat indecisive picture, but the fact we're still holding above that 117 mark gives me pause.
My take is if it manages to close convincingly below 117, say a daily close under 116.80, then the jig is up for this support. That would open the door for a retest of lower levels, probably somewhere around 115 or even 113 if momentum really picks up. Conversely, if it can hold this line and start pushing back towards the 120 mark, that would signal some underlying strength returning. Not making any calls, just laying out what I'm seeing and how I'm thinking about the risk around this price point.
While the historical support is noted, relying solely on prior price action at a specific level for a commodity ETF often leads to disappointment. What's the fundamental driver for the bounce, or is it just technical noise within a larger trend?