Thoughts on USO and the oil complex at these levels

Been watching $USO closely, and it's interesting to see how it's reacted around the $118-$120 zone. We've seen a couple of rejections there lately, most recently today hitting a high of $120.09 and settling back down to $117.98. It feels like this area is becoming a bit of a supply zone, or at least a resistance point that needs more conviction to break through.

From a technical perspective, if we don't get a clear push above $120.50, I'd be inclined to think we could see a retest of the lower $115-$116 range. The daily closes are telling; a sustained close above $120.50 for a day or two would invalidate that cautious outlook and suggest momentum is indeed building for higher prices. Below $115, and the whole picture changes for me, potentially opening up a path towards $112. Just my current read, nothing set in stone.