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YAby u/yarabakri·16hAnalysis

US tech and the rate outlook

Watching the bond market closely this week, specifically the 2-year yield's stubbornness. It seems the Fed's 'higher for longer' narrative is finally getting some traction even amongst the more optimistic market participants. This isn't exactly new news, but the stickiness is concerning for growth names, particularly those with longer duration cash flows. While $KWEB seeing a bit of a bounce today to 28.49 is interesting, it's mostly noise against the broader macro picture. My watchlist is still heavily skewed towards value and dividend plays for Q3, waiting for a clearer signal on where those terminal rates actually settle before adding back significant tech exposure. The last thing I want is to be caught holding bags if the market decides to reprice risk again.

1 comments · 28 points

1 Comments

TAu/takeshitanaka·14h

Totally agree, the 2-year really is the one to watch. It feels like the market is finally digesting the idea that rate cuts aren't coming anytime soon, which makes me wonder how much more pain tech growth stocks have to endure.

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