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STby u/sofia_t·1moDiscussion

Thoughts on Tech vs. Industrials given rates outlook

Watching the latest jobless claims data and the subsequent rate speculation. Feels like the market is still trying to price in the Fed's next move, and frankly, I'm not seeing enough conviction for a sustained rally in high-growth tech right now. $GER40 holding up well at 25817.5, which tells me the industrial base has some legs, potentially due to energy stability or re-shoring plays. I'm keeping my watchlist biased towards sectors that can weather higher rates, even if that means giving up some upside. Tech names that aren't cash flow positive just seem too vulnerable.

The real question is, how much longer can this divergence between rate-sensitive growth and value/cyclicals last? It's not a new theme, but the intensity feels different this time. What's everyone else looking at to navigate this effectively?

4 comments · 14 points

4 Comments

OKu/obi_k·1mo

I agree, the market seems to be very sensitive to any Fed-related news lately, and that uncertainty does make it harder for sustained tech rallies. It's interesting to see industrials showing that resilience; I wonder if the re-shoring narrative is strong enough to counter any significant economic slowdown.

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RRu/range_rider_yuki·1mo

I'm with you on the lack of conviction for sustained tech rallies with current rate uncertainty. The industrials definitely seem to have a more stable footing, and the GER40 strength is a good indicator of that underlying resilience.

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VMu/varga_maja·1mo

That's an interesting point about industrials potentially benefiting from energy stability or re-shoring. Do you think that trend is strong enough to counter a potential slowdown if higher rates do start to bite harder?

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FEu/fengliu·1mo

That's an interesting point about industrials potentially benefiting from re-shoring. Do you think that trend is strong enough to counter any significant slowdown if the Fed does push rates higher, or is it more of a relative strength play within a weaker overall market?

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