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RGby u/rossi_greta·3hDiscussion

Thoughts on Market Efficiency and the 'AI Revolution' for $TCEHY and similar

Been pondering the narratives around market efficiency lately, especially with all the buzz about AI. We've seen significant pullbacks in growth-oriented tech names this year, some justifiable, some perhaps overdone. My current take, and I'm sure some will disagree, is that a lot of the 'AI revolution' premium has already been priced into companies like Tencent ($TCEHY) for a while now, even before the current widespread media frenzy. Look at its day range today, $57.87-$58.65, and the overall trajectory over the last year—it's been a tough slog.

It feels like the market has gotten incredibly good at discounting future narratives, almost to a fault. When everyone is talking about the transformative power of AI, is there any real alpha left to be found in that specific thesis for established players, or are we just watching the re-rating of assets based on known information? It reminds me a bit of the early days of crypto hype when every project claimed to be 'the next big thing,' only to be outcompeted or simply fail to deliver. I find myself leaning more into finding value where the narrative hasn't fully taken hold, or where the market is perhaps overly pessimistic. Would love to hear some counterarguments on why the 'AI revolution' still offers significant upside for companies that have already traded at a premium for years based on future growth.

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