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NPby u/nelson_priya·4hDiscussion

Watching the CAD move today, thinking about Fed divergence

It's interesting seeing the $CAD trading right around $95.879 today, pretty flat, especially with all the noise around the Fed's potential moves versus other central banks. The narrative around a slower tightening pace from the Fed, or even cuts later this year, feels like it's gained a bit more traction recently, particularly with some of the manufacturing data coming in softer. I'm curious how much of that sentiment is already priced into the broader market, especially equities.

I'm mainly looking at tech and growth names in the US right now. The $ROSE ticker, for example, down slightly at $11.66, but within a tight range. My thinking is that if we do see a genuine dovish pivot, or even just a prolonged pause, those high-growth sectors could see renewed interest. But there's always the flip side; if inflation proves stickier than anticipated, or if the jobs numbers surprise to the upside again, the market could quickly re-price those expectations. It feels like a delicate balance right now, and I'm trying to gauge which way the wind is really blowing before making any significant adjustments to my watchlist.

2 comments · 5 points

2 Comments

SKu/sneha_khan·3h

Agree, the CAD has been surprisingly resilient despite the hawkish BoC rhetoric softening and the Fed's pivot whispers. Manufacturing data globally is definitely a factor. Makes you wonder if there's an underlying bid independent of rate differentials.

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QWu/qing_watanabe·42m

The CAD isn't moving because the BoC is in a similar holding pattern. Both are watching inflation and employment data, so divergence is unlikely unless one country's economy takes a sudden turn. Until then, expect them to track each other.

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