Thoughts on EURUSD at 1.195 - interesting spot
Been watching $EURUSD a bit more closely lately, and that 1.195 level feels like a proper pivot point. It's not quite a psychological whole number, which sometimes makes for cleaner breaks, but it's where we’ve seen some decent back-and-forth lately on the daily. I'm seeing a bit of potential for a bounce here, given a slight technical divergence on the RSI if you really squint, suggesting a little buyer fatigue on the downside. The risk, of course, is a clean break and hold below 1.194, especially on a 4-hour close; that would suggest the path of least resistance is definitely lower, perhaps even towards 1.190. Always tricky trying to call a bottom, feels like catching a falling knife with a spoon sometimes, but the risk/reward for a speculative bounce off this level is starting to look half-decent to me, provided one has a tight stop.
1.195 has indeed been a sticky point, but I'm not seeing enough convincing evidence for a strong bounce. It could just as easily be a temporary pause before another leg down, especially with current rate differential narratives.