Anyone else struggle with 'knowing your edge' beyond just Win Rate * R?
I've been grinding away for about a year now, mostly swing trading $AAPL, $MSFT, and a few other large caps. I feel like I've got a decent handle on the technicals I use, and my journaling shows a roughly 55-60% win rate with an average R of about 1.2-1.5. On paper, that's positive expectancy, right? And it has been, marginally.
But sometimes, especially after a run of losses, I start second-guessing if I really know what my 'edge' is beyond just these numbers. It feels a bit like I'm just playing the probabilities, which is the idea, but then I wonder if there's a deeper, more qualitative understanding I'm missing. Like, do I truly understand why my setup works when it does, and why it doesn't sometimes? Or is it just 'it worked this time'? For those of you who've been at this for years, how did you get from 'this setup works x% of the time' to a deeper, almost intuitive understanding of your market edge? Is it just more screen time?
It sounds like you're in a good spot with your numbers, but that feeling of doubt after losses is incredibly common. Perhaps your 'edge' isn't just about the numbers themselves, but also about how consistently you can execute your strategy under pressure, or your ability to adapt to changing market conditions for those specific stocks?