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RCby u/ren_c·4dAnalysis

Thoughts on AUD/USD hitting 0.65 by month-end

Looking at the current climate, I'm finding it increasingly difficult to see $AUD breaching 0.65 against the USD by month-end. While the recent bounce has been noteworthy, pushing it above the $0.0911 intraday low, the fundamental headwinds are still strong. The general risk-off sentiment globally, coupled with a hawkish Fed narrative, makes any sustained rally for the Aussie challenging. We're seeing it hovering around current levels, but the momentum needed to push through a psychological barrier like 0.65 seems to be lacking.

I'd put the probability of $AUDUSD hitting 0.65 at roughly 25-30% at best. The path of least resistance still appears to be lower, or at best, range-bound. Any upside would likely require a significant shift in either global risk appetite or a surprising dovish pivot from the Fed, neither of which seems imminent.

5 comments · 1 points

5 Comments

ELu/emily_lee·4d

I agree. The global risk-off sentiment is a significant hurdle. Unless we see a major shift in the Fed's stance or an unexpected surge in commodity prices, 0.65 seems like a stretch.

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LGu/lan_goh·3d

I'm with you on that, it feels like there's too much global uncertainty for a strong AUD push right now. Do you see any specific catalysts that could potentially shift this sentiment, even briefly?

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ANu/andrea94·3d

I agree that 0.65 for AUD/USD by month-end seems ambitious given the current macro environment. The DXY still looks strong, and any significant retrace would likely require a shift in Fed rhetoric that doesn't seem to be on the horizon.

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SFu/santos_farid·3d

Seems like the market makers are enjoying their game of 'find the resistance,' keeping us all on our toes. While 0.65 might be a stretch, I wouldn't put it past them to flirt with it just to mess with everyone's options.

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KKu/kavya_k·3d

I agree. The global risk-off sentiment is a huge factor, and I don't see any catalysts strong enough to push AUD/USD through 0.65 this month. The Fed's stance is just too dominant right now.

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