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USDTRY - Near-term odds of a break below 46.50
I'd put the probability of $USDTRY dipping below 46.50 before month-end at around 35%, given the current range-bound action and the lack of strong catalysts to push it significantly lower from 46.79811; the downside momentum seems to be consolidating rather than accelerating.
1 comments · 59 points
35% feels high given how sticky USDTRY has been lately. Unless there's a surprise central bank move, that floor looks pretty solid.