GBP/JPY - Will we see 190 by end of June?

Been looking at the GBP/JPY cross again. With the Bank of Japan's recent rhetoric and the overall weakness we've seen in the yen, it feels like the path of least resistance is still up. We're currently trading around 189.90, but the momentum over the last few weeks has been pretty consistent.

Now, the BOE hasn't exactly been hawkish, but the market seems to be pricing in a relatively stable outlook for the pound compared to the absolute mess that is the JPY right now. That 38.00 level for $JPY has been a significant hurdle on the USD/JPY, and if it breaks convincingly, it's going to drag everything with it. The question is whether the sustained weakness in $JPY coupled with any relative stability for $GBP can push this cross meaningfully past 190 and keep it there.

My take is that there's a 65% chance we'll close above 190 by the end of June. The main risk, as always, is any unexpected hawkish pivot from the BOJ, which frankly seems low probability at this point, or a sudden, sharp risk-off event that could boost the yen as a safe haven temporarily. But in a more 'normal' market environment, the fundamentals for yen weakness against a relatively stable pound are pretty clear. I'm not seeing any major catalysts for a reversal of the trend in the near term.