EURJPY and the 185 Level by Month-End

Been watching $EURJPY pretty closely lately. It's been on a remarkable run, pushing up against what feels like some psychological resistance around 185. We're currently trading at 184.60754, so not far off.

My gut feeling, looking at the daily charts and how aggressive the buying momentum has been, is that we'll see a test of 185 before the end of the month. I'd put the probability of hitting 185 at around 60-65%. The reasoning is largely momentum-driven, coupled with what seems to be a continued divergence in policy between the ECB and the BOJ. We've seen some consolidation attempts, but they've been relatively shallow, indicating that the underlying buying interest is still very much there. The question is whether we can sustain a break above it, or if it'll be a quick touch and retrace. I'm leaning towards a test, but holding above it might require another catalyst.