BABA and the 95 Support Test by Month-End
Watching $BABA with interest heading into month-end. It's been hovering around the 95-97 range for a bit now, and the 95 level seems to be acting as a fairly significant psychological and technical floor. With today's dip and intraday low of 95.19, it feels like we're pressing that support more forcefully than we have in recent sessions.
My take for the probability of $BABA closing below 95.00 at least once before the end of May is probably around 60%. There's enough macro uncertainty and persistent, albeit easing, regulatory overhang to provide a catalyst for a retest. A close below 95.00 would likely signal a more significant technical breakdown to consider. Conversely, a bounce off 95.00 could set up a re-evaluation of the recent trading range's durability.
It's definitely been fascinating to watch $BABA test that 95 level. Do you think there's significant institutional buying interest if it breaches it, or could we see a faster move down if that floor gives way?