BRL/USD hitting 5.30 by month-end - rough odds?

Considering the current $BRL movement and the broader EM currency headwinds, I'm putting the odds of $BRLUSD testing the 5.30 level by end-of-month at around 65%. We're seeing persistent dollar strength, and any further hawkish rhetoric from the Fed could easily push it there.

The 5.2396 resistance has held so far, but the general flow suggests an eventual breach. Fundamentally, domestic inflation and political noise in Brazil remain tailwinds for dollar appreciation against the Real. It feels like a matter of when not if we see that test.