On $BRN breaking 1.05 by month-end

Been looking at the $BRN Polymarket for a while now, specifically the 'BRN > 1.05 by October 31st' market. The recent moves have been interesting, with $BRN currently sitting around 1.01. We've seen a bit of a bounce, but nothing that screams sustained momentum just yet.

My take is that the probability of it hitting 1.05 by month-end is sitting around 35-40%. While the day's high of 1.02 shows it can touch that level, sustaining a further 3-4% rally without a significant catalyst in the next week feels like a stretch. The current price action seems more range-bound than genuinely directional for a break out that high. It's not impossible, but the odds aren't compelling enough to lean heavily into it.