Polymarket on $SHIB volatility and 'sure thing' markets
Been watching the $SHIB markets on Polymarket. It feels like there's an over-reliance on simple daily percentage moves for resolution on some of these, like "Will $SHIB close above $0.000005 today?" even when the range is tight. We've seen it bounce between $0.00000461 and $0.000005 today, which for SHIB is a pretty normal swing. People seem to jump on the 'yes' side early after any uptick, ignoring potential fade, or vice versa.
It makes me wonder if a lot of Polymarket users are getting too comfortable with assuming these assets have less volatility than they actually do, or perhaps aren't factoring in the quick shifts that can happen in the last hour of a trading day. It often feels like the market gets priced as a "sure thing" too early based on intraday moves, which then gets squeezed if there's any pullback. Thoughts on this — am I overthinking the average user's risk assessment here?
That's a really interesting point. I've noticed that too, especially with how quickly people pile into one side. Do you think it's just a lack of understanding of typical volatility, or more about trying to catch any small upward trend?