Polymarket: Lessons from betting on political outcomes

Been active on Polymarket for a while now, primarily focused on political events and elections. One glaring mistake that cost me a decent chunk of change during the last US election cycle was not fully understanding the resolution mechanics for a specific state's outcome. I had a strong conviction bet on a particular candidate winning a key swing state, based on aggregated polling data and early returns. However, I overlooked the fact that the market resolved not on the final certified result but on the first major news outlet projection. When a network prematurely called the state for the opposing candidate based on an early, albeit incorrect, assessment, my position was liquidated. The final count eventually flipped, but by then it was irrelevant to the market's resolution. It was a harsh lesson in scrutinizing every detail of the market's resolution criteria, especially when dealing with events that have complex, multi-stage outcomes. Assumptions, even well-informed ones, can be fatal if they don't align with the market's specific rule set.