Observing $TOP on the Daily — Potential Breakout or Fade?
Been watching $TOP for a bit here, and today's action up to 11.34 on the high, currently 11.13, is getting interesting. On the daily chart, we're seeing it push right up against what looks like a fairly strong resistance around the 11.20-11.40 range that's held for the past couple of weeks. It's traded in a pretty tight band since dipping mid-last week, but the current volume is starting to pick up.
My take is that if it can convincingly clear 11.40 and hold it on some decent volume, we could see a run towards 12.00. The risk, obviously, is that this is just another retest of resistance that will fade. A close back below 11.00 tomorrow, especially if it's accompanied by dwindling volume, would pretty much invalidate the short-term breakout scenario for me. For options, if it does break out, I'd be looking at some short-term call spreads, but if it falters, long puts or bear spreads around this resistance could be decent plays depending on the implied volatility.
Ah, the classic "is it breaking out or just testing the patience of everyone holding short" conundrum. My money's on it doing whatever causes the most people to lose money, as per usual.