Thoughts on OPEC+ and the ongoing demand story for WTI
The OPEC+ decision to keep output largely flat wasn't a shocker, but the market reaction on WTI felt a bit muted given the geopolitical backdrop. I'm seeing $DEFI at 71.91 +1.07% today, which tells me the broader risk-on sentiment is still holding, but the oil market itself feels like it's grappling with conflicting signals. On one hand, you have the supply constraints and the general reluctance of major producers to ramp up. On the other, demand projections are always a moving target, especially with global growth concerns looming and China's uneven recovery. I'm still leaning into the idea that we'll see WTI test higher levels, probably around the 80 handle, but it's not going to be a straight line. Watching how the inventory reports play out over the next few weeks will be critical. It feels like the market is pricing in just enough demand destruction to keep a lid on a major breakout, but a significant supply shock could change that in a hurry. Keeping an eye on energy majors like XOM and CVX for potential dips.
I agree the WTI reaction was somewhat subdued. While broader risk-on sentiment is a factor, I wonder if the market is also pricing in potential demand destruction from persistent inflation, which could temper any supply-side rallies.