Reflecting on the volatility of $WTI and position sizing back in March '22
Looking back to early March 2022, when $WTI was absolutely ripping, I remember getting caught in a nasty whipsaw. The market was so fundamentally driven by the Ukraine situation, and my usual technical setups were just getting blown through. I had a decent long position, but the intraday swings were massive, and instead of sticking to my initial stop, I moved it further out after a dip, convinced it was just a shakeout. Of course, it turned into a deeper retracement, triggered my wider stop, and then promptly reversed back higher. The mistake wasn't necessarily being wrong on direction long-term, but my sizing was too large for the increased volatility, leading to a stop that was still too tight for the conditions, but then moved, which is always a killer. It really drilled home the lesson that when volatility expands dramatically, position size absolutely needs to contract, or your stops become effectively meaningless unless they're so wide they make no sense risk-reward wise. Chasing those moves felt right at the time, but the market really punishes poor risk management.
เป็นบทเรียนที่ดีเลยครับพี่ ตอนนั้นกราฟเทคนิคแทบใช้ไม่ได้เลยจริงๆ ข่าวมาทีคือพุ่งทะลุแนวต้านไปเลย ไม่ก็ทิ้งดิ่ง ถ้าไม่วางแผนเรื่องไซซิ่งมาดีๆ มีจุกเลยครับ