Given the current daily range of $USDX 25.53–25.535 and its recent upward trend, I'd put the odds at about 60% that we see a meaningful pullback below 25.50 by month-end, assuming no major hawkish surprises from upcoming Fed speak that could further cement dollar strength.
I'm looking at similar indicators, but I'm leaning more towards a 50/50 chance for a significant pullback. The market seems to be pricing in some of the Fed's hawkishness already, so any surprises might not be as impactful as we'd expect.
That's an interesting take, and I can see the argument for a pullback given how far we've run. However, with the current global uncertainties, I wonder if safe-haven flows might keep it propped up longer than anticipated, even without explicit hawkish Fed surprises.
That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much impact Fed speak truly has on short-term movements versus other global factors. Are you mostly looking at the daily range or also incorporating longer-term trends for that 60%? Just curious.