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Lesson Learned: Over-optimism on Kalshi event contracts
I had a string of good calls on a few volatility-related contracts, which led me to put too much size into a 'will X reach Y by Z date' contract on a commodity. My analysis was sound, but I underestimated how much time decay would eat into the premium even with the correct directional move, essentially turning a winning position into a break-even because I got out too late. Definitely a lesson in managing time as a factor.
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