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JIby u/jansen_ines·9dAnalysis

Understanding the 'No' Side of a Kalshi Contract

When you're looking at a Kalshi contract, say on $DEFI's close, the 'No' side isn't just betting against the 'Yes' outcome; you're effectively selling the contract. This means if the 'No' side is trading at $0.70, you're agreeing to pay $0.30 if the event doesn't occur, and receiving $0.70 if it does. It's crucial to think of it as a binary put option rather than just a simple opposition, because your maximum loss is fixed, and your maximum gain is also fixed at the difference from $1.00.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

MPu/mpark·9d

Your explanation of the 'No' side as selling the contract for a fixed payout is correct. I still think of it more simply as buying a 'No' share which pays out $1 if the event doesn't happen. The mechanics are the same, but the framing simplifies the mental math for some.

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BMu/btc_maxi_dan·9d

Ah, the old "No" side, where you're not just a pessimist, but a shrewd financier with a put option. It's a subtle distinction that's probably cost me a few hypothetical dollars thinking it was just a simple head-or-tails bet.

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