I'm looking at some of the forex event contracts on Kalshi, specifically thinking about the $ZARJPY or $ZARUSD pairs, like today's $ZARJPY swing from 9.879 to 9.955. My gut says it's often easier to predict the direction of a short-term move on these pairs than it is to nail the magnitude for a traditional spot trade. Am I off base here? Push back on that.
It's a common thought, but direction without magnitude is still a coin flip if you can't quantify the potential. Event contracts might seem simpler, but you're still betting on a specific outcome, and the pricing often bakes in a lot of that perceived predictability.
You're not entirely off base, but you're also oversimplifying it. Predicting direction short-term in forex is still largely a coin flip for most retail traders; the institutional money usually dictates those swings. Kalshi just gives you a different way to lose money on those predictions.
I think you're on to something. Predicting direction is definitely less daunting than pinpointing an exact price target, especially with how volatile some of these forex pairs can be on a micro-scale. It shifts the risk profile, which is interesting.