On Kalshi and the illusion of 'prediction' with the right price

Been thinking a lot about Kalshi recently, especially as we see how some of these contracts are moving. It feels like a lot of the talk around prediction markets frames it as 'predicting' an event, when often it's really about buying into a probability at a price that you believe is misaligned with the market's current assessment. Like, if an event is trading at $0.20, it's not a prediction, it's a bet on whether that 20% implied probability is too low given your read. I'm curious if others see it more as a sophisticated form of arbitrage on perceived probabilities rather than a crystal ball. Push back on this if you disagree; happy to hear other perspectives.