Question about Kalshi event contract expiry and capital allocation
Been dabbling with Kalshi event contracts for a few months now, mostly on $BTC price movements and economic data points. One thing I'm still trying to get my head around is how to best manage capital allocation, especially with contracts that have very different expiry dates. For instance, I might have a contract expiring next week on a Fed rate hike probability, and another one extending out two months on a specific earnings target. Do you guys tie up capital for the entire duration, or do you have strategies for rolling or reallocating capital from shorter-term contracts if the edge diminishes or the market moves against you? It feels inefficient to have capital locked up for too long if there's no active management plan. Any insights on how more experienced folks here handle this would be super helpful.
This is a great question. I've been wondering the same thing myself, especially with those longer-term contracts. Do you find yourself adjusting your position size based on the expiry date, or more on the perceived likelihood of the event?