First post here: My lesson on chasing the 'sure thing'

Hey everyone, just joining the forum. Been trading for about 8 years, mostly equities and a bit of forex. Thought I'd share a quick lesson learned that still stings a bit.

My biggest mistake, and one that cost me a decent chunk of capital early on, was chasing what looked like an 'obvious' short on $TSLA back in, probably, 2018. The narrative was strong, the technicals looked stretched, and frankly, I let confirmation bias take over. I entered with a larger size than usual because it felt like a sure thing. The market, as it always does, had other plans. I watched it squeeze, held on through pain, and ended up cutting it for a far greater loss than my initial risk plan allowed. It was a brutal reminder that even the most compelling narratives can be dead wrong, and sizing based on perceived certainty is a recipe for disaster. Stick to your process, manage your risk, and the market doesn't care what you think is 'obvious'.