XOP: Still range-bound but watching that low wick

Been looking at $XOP again, and it's certainly had a decent run up today, currently at 186.33. What's interesting to me is the daily range, hitting 187.81 at its peak. My concern is still that it's just bumping up against the top of its recent range. We've seen it hit around 188-189 and get rejected a few times over the last couple of weeks. I'm not seeing the conviction yet for a breakout; it feels more like short-covering than fresh buying. If it closes above 188.50, I might reconsider, but until then, I'd say the risk for any sustained move higher is that it just fizzles out and we retest the lower end of the channel, probably around 183-184. The invalidation for my 'range-bound' thesis would be a clear daily close comfortably above 189, holding it into tomorrow. Otherwise, I'm just watching for the next dip.