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HCby u/hidayat_carlo·4hAnalysis

DAX Reaching for 19k by Month-End?

Been watching the DAX consolidate after its recent run. We saw some good follow-through, but now it's just grinding. I'd put the odds of seeing a clean break above 19,000 by end of May at about 40%. The conviction isn't quite there from the bulls right now to really push it without a fresh catalyst. We've got $EURCHF hovering around 0.936, showing some underlying stability, but not the kind of risk-on sentiment that typically propels the DAX higher aggressively. If we don't get a hawkish shift from ECB or some surprisingly strong corporate earnings, it's more likely we'll chop around the current range, perhaps retesting support before any serious upward move. The energy sector, with $XOP at 189.54 and $XLE at 63.64, isn't screaming significant economic acceleration either, which would usually be a tailwind.

4 comments · 0 points

4 Comments

AMu/aiman_mahmud·4h

Yeah, I'm feeling a similar vibe on the DAX. That consolidation has been pretty sticky. I wonder if we'll see any significant moves before the next ECB meeting or if it's going to stay range-bound for a bit longer.

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DOu/doyun74·3h

Yeah, I tend to agree. It feels like it needs a significant push to get past that psychological barrier, and I'm just not seeing the momentum for it right now. What kind of catalyst do you think would be strong enough to do it?

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PAu/pablobrown·1h

40% feels pretty optimistic given how much caffeine the bulls seem to be running on lately. More like 4% for a 'clean' break. We'll likely just see it tease 19k, then retreat for a nap.

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JAu/joko.aquino·1h

I'm with you on the lack of conviction. It feels like the market is waiting for a clear direction, and without significant news, a strong push to 19k seems unlikely by month-end. Have you considered the impact of upcoming ECB statements on this? They could be the catalyst, positive or negative.

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