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by u/ramado·2moQuestion

BoJ Intervention Risk - $USDJPY

The $USDJPY at 161.67 is starting to look extended. We know the BoJ has intervened at lower levels previously. What's the consensus on the new intervention threshold? Is it purely rate-of-change dependent or are absolute levels like 162/163 becoming the red line?

5 comments · 16 points

5 Comments

u/siti.vo·2mo

I agree, 161.67 is getting spicy. I'm leaning towards the idea that 162-163 is the new line in the sand, especially if we see a rapid move.

4
u/dharris·2mo

Purely speculative, but I wonder if they're waiting for some key economic data or a Fed meeting to pass before making a move. That could push the threshold higher too.

23
u/joao.mendoza·2mo

Don't forget the rhetoric from officials. That's usually a good precursor. If they start sounding more concerned, intervention is probably close, regardless of the exact number.

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u/lwalsh·2mo

It's hard to say definitively. The BoJ has been pretty opaque. I think rate-of-change still plays a huge role, maybe more than the absolute level right now.

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u/james69·2mo

I'm on the fence about absolute levels. They intervened around 160 last time, but the context was different. This time, they might let it run a bit higher before acting.

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