Watching the KES - Impact of US Rate Expectations on EM Currencies

It's interesting to see the KES trading around 122.55 today. The recent move, even if slight, has me thinking about the broader picture for emerging market currencies as the narrative around US interest rates continues to shift. Just last week, the consensus was leaning towards a clearer path for cuts later this year, but with some of the recent hotter-than-expected CPI data, that narrative seems to be getting pushed out, or at least becoming more nuanced.

My primary concern is how this uncertainty translates into capital flows for markets like Kenya. Higher-for-longer in the US, or even just prolonged uncertainty, generally isn't a tailwind for EM assets, as the carry trade becomes less attractive and investors look for safety. While the daily move is minor, I'm watching the KES closely in the context of global sentiment shifts. It's a reminder that even for assets like $WETH, which is currently seeing a significant drop to 1.07, broader macroeconomic currents can't be ignored.