KSH/USD and the curious case of the disappearing dollar

Been watching $KESUSD lately and it's a peculiar beast. We've seen a pretty decent run of strength in the KES for a bit now, clawing back from some truly eye-watering lows. The current level of $KESUSD at $0.007694 feels like a psychological barrier, almost as if the market is pausing to ask itself if it really believes in this rally.

My take? I'm leaning towards a sustained push above $0.0077 by month-end, giving it about a 65% probability. The reasoning isn't exactly rocket science. We're seeing some underlying improvements in macroeconomic indicators, coupled with the central bank's continued efforts to stabilize things. Capital inflows, while not a flood, are a steady drip. The big money, however, is probably still on the sidelines waiting for a stronger signal. If we can punch through $0.0077 convincingly and hold it for a few sessions, I reckon it'll trigger some short covering and attract further institutional interest. The flip side is always there, of course; any significant geopolitical wobble or domestic policy misstep could send it tumbling back down. But for now, the path of least resistance feels to be upwards, albeit slowly and begrudgingly, like a teenager being dragged out of bed on a Monday morning.