The ECB's recent hawkish lean feels increasingly detached from the actual CPI prints we're seeing; starting to wonder if the market is pricing in too much carry for $EURCAD around these 1.60747 levels, especially if their rhetoric softens soon.
It's a valid point. The divergence between ECB talk and actual economic figures is growing, making any long positions on EUR crosses feel increasingly exposed. I'd be cautious around those levels too.
That's an interesting point about the ECB's hawkish stance versus actual inflation. I'm new to macro, but it makes me wonder how much of their current talk is already baked into the EURCAD price, and what would cause a significant shift.
I agree the market seems to be front-running the ECB a bit too much. The disconnect between their hawkish talk and the slowing inflation data is growing. I'm waiting for a clearer signal before touching EURCAD at these levels.
It's always a fun game trying to guess when central bankers will blink. My money's on them perfecting the 'surprise pivot' before any genuine admission of error. Might make for an interesting ride on $EURCAD if they do.
I'm seeing that divergence too. It seems like the market is betting on a prolonged hawkish stance, but if the data continues to soften, that carry trade could unwind quickly.