USDCAD and the CAD strength conundrum

Watching $USDCAD this morning, holding around 1.40108. The recent strength in CAD, despite some softer data out of Canada, is making me rethink some short-term plays. It feels like the market is still pricing in a hawkish tilt from the BoC down the line, even if current numbers aren't screaming for it.

I'm keeping an eye on crude prices, obviously, but also how the Fed's next moves might influence that $USD leg. A more dovish Fed could certainly provide some downside for $USDCAD, but for now, it's a bit of a tricky spot to jump in with conviction. Might sit on the sidelines on this one for a bit.