Thoughts on JPY and MXN weakness after recent inflation prints
Interesting to see the continued pressure on JPY, even with some hawkish leaning from the BOJ lately. The latest inflation numbers from Japan, while showing a slight cool-off, still point to a tricky balancing act for them. Combine that with what we're seeing in Mexico, where inflation also remains stubborn – it makes me wonder how much more room we have for these carry trades to run. I've been watching $MXNJPY, currently at 9.349, and it's been surprisingly resilient. Given the recent range of 9.326-9.371, it seems like there's a definite bias for upside, but how sustainable is it if central banks are forced to pivot harder than expected?
I'm particularly curious about how much of this is already priced in versus how much real impact a hawkish shift from either side could have. If global risk appetite were to take a hit, could we see a sharper correction in pairs like this? I'm keeping an eye on the 9.40 level on $MXNJPY as a potential area of resistance, but the underlying demand for EM yields coupled with a still-dovish BOJ narrative seems to be providing a strong floor. What are others thinking about the outlook for these crosses with inflation still sticking around globally?