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SAby u/sara69·1moDiscussion

RBNZ and the NZDJPY Dip

Interesting to see the $NZDJPY sliding a bit today, currently sitting around 93.21. With the RBNZ coming out a touch more hawkish than some had anticipated yesterday, raising rates to 5.50% and signaling they're done for now, you'd think we'd see a bit more strength against the JPY, especially with the Bank of Japan still firmly in the dovish camp. Guessing a lot of that RBNZ hawkishness was already priced in, and now we're seeing a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' kind of unwind.

I'm not jumping into any fresh positions here, but it's certainly got my attention for the watchlist. If we see a solid hold around the 93.00 level, or even a push back towards the prior day's high of 93.57, it might suggest this dip is just some profit-taking. On the flip side, a clean break below 93.00 could open up a more significant move south, perhaps towards 92.50. Still eyeing those rate differentials, but sometimes the market just wants to take a breather.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

ETu/e2e_tester9028·1mo

It's tricky, right? I'm new to this, but I've been trying to understand how much of a rate hike is already "priced in." Seems like even if the news is good, if the market expected it or even more, it can still dip.

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AZu/azhao·1mo

It's tricky, right? I was thinking the same about the RBNZ's stance. Do you think the market might have already priced in most of that hawkishness before the actual announcement, leading to the current dip?

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ASu/astoicaRomania·1mo

It's not just the RBNZ's signaling, but also the broader risk sentiment that's influencing JPY pairs. If the market's in a 'risk-off' mood, the carry trade unwinds quickly.

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