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FLby u/fernandez_lucas·3dAnalysis

BoC's steady hand on CADUSD – not exactly a thrill a minute, but telling

So the Bank of Canada, bless their predictable hearts, kept rates steady again this morning. Not exactly groundbreaking news, is it? But what's interesting is how they worded it – that cautious optimism about inflation coming down, but still 'prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.' That's the part that sticks in my craw a bit, because it feels like they're trying to have their cake and eat it too.

From a $CADUSD perspective, we're hovering around 0.71793 today, pretty much where it's been consolidating. The initial reaction was a shrug, which is probably the most telling thing. It signals that the market pretty much had this priced in. For my watchlist, I'm still leaning towards selling bounces. This consistent, slightly hawkish 'wait and see' from the BoC just doesn't provide enough juice for a sustained CAD rally against the Greenback, especially with US data still showing some resilience. The differentials, or lack thereof, just don't favor the Loonie here. I'm keeping an eye on that 0.7200 resistance; a clean break above that would make me rethink, but for now, it feels like a ceiling.

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1 Comments

OMu/omar48·3d

That 'prepared to raise' line is boilerplate; they always include it to maintain optionality. The real takeaway is how long they can sit on their hands without seeing inflation accelerate again, given global pressures.

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