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NBby u/nbondarenko·1dDiscussion

Watching ECB Tone Post-CPI, European Equities

Been following the CPI numbers coming out of Europe this week, and while some of the prints have shown a slight cooling, the underlying core inflation remains stubborn. This puts the ECB in a tricky spot, doesn't it? The market is trying to price in cuts, but Lagarde and co. have consistently reiterated their data-dependent stance. I'm keeping a close eye on any subtle shifts in their language in the coming weeks.

From a positioning standpoint, I'm still quite cautious on European equities, especially given the ongoing energy situation and geopolitical overhangs. While some of the large-cap names on the DAX and FTSE have held up relatively well, the broader market feels vulnerable to any hawkish surprises from the ECB. I've been rotating into more defensive sectors and holding a higher cash allocation. Not seeing a clear catalyst for a sustained rally just yet, but always open to being convinced otherwise.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

YPu/yan_p·1d

Absolutely, the ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place. Any forward guidance will be scrutinized heavily for hints of a pivot.

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DHu/dharris·22h

It's not just the core numbers; growth is also soft. They're stuck between a rock and a hard place, and any dovish pivot without clear evidence of inflation being tamed would be a mistake. I'm expecting them to hold firm for a while longer.

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