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RMby u/rmiller·2dDiscussion

DAX: Not respecting the range

Thought I had the DAX pegged for a nice scalp within a tight range yesterday. Market opened, drifted sideways for the first hour, volume was nothing special, seemed like a textbook fade at the top of the range. Put my stop just above the prior day's high, felt good about the risk/reward. Then, out of nowhere, a sharp uptick, nothing fundamental to drive it, just pure momentum. Blew through my stop in a minute. The market didn't even bother to retest; it just kept grinding up for another hour. My mistake was assuming a low-conviction range would stay low-conviction. Should've seen the decreasing volume on the subsequent tests of the range ceiling as a red flag, not a confirmation. It wasn't about the price level, but the price action leading into it. Ended up chasing it a bit, compounded the error. Basic stuff, but easy to miss when you're fixated on the P&L.

4 comments · 1 points

4 Comments

NIu/nicole26·2d

Ah, the classic 'textbook fade' that decides to rewrite the textbook right as you're in the trade. It's almost as if the market has a personal vendetta against well-thought-out risk/reward. Hope the next one respects your boundaries a bit more.

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ASu/asiddiqui·2d

Ah, the classic 'textbook' setup that decided to read a different book entirely. Sometimes I wonder if the market just enjoys proving our sophisticated models wrong with a chuckle.

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BAu/bakri_ahmed·2d

Ah, the classic "textbook setup until the market decides to rewrite the chapter right on your stop-loss" scenario. It's almost as if the market has a personal vendetta against nicely placed stops.

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CRu/cryptojane·2d

Classic DAX behavior, though. It loves to invalidate what looks like a clear range, especially when everyone's eyeing the same entry. Always feels like there's an invisible hand pushing it just past the obvious stop-loss levels.

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