DAX: Watching 18,000 for a pullback scenario into month-end

Alright, looking at the DAX, it's been a beast, no doubt. But the velocity here is getting a bit frothy. We've seen a pretty straight shot up, and while momentum is still very much in play, I'm starting to eye that 18,000 psychological level with some skepticism for a clean break and hold. My gut, backed by a quick look at the weekly charts and some overbought indicators, suggests a probability of around 60-65% that we see a meaningful rejection or at least a significant consolidation below 18,000 by month-end, potentially tagging 17,600-17,700 again.

Reasoning isn't rocket science: profit-taking at a big round number, coupled with the sheer speed of this rally, just screams for a breather. We aren't seeing any major catalysts to blast through that decisively right now. The $COMP at 11.875, down a percent, isn't exactly helping broad market sentiment either, suggesting some underlying nervousness. So, I'm not saying it won't get there, but holding above it for more than a day or two seems less likely than a fade back down. Could be wrong, but that's my read.