It feels like the $COMP drop to 11.72 (-1.68%) is pulling European equities like the DAX down more than warranted, especially considering the differing rate outlooks. Am I wrong to think Europe has more independent legs here, or is the global macro too strong a tether? Push back on this.
I think you're onto something with the rate outlooks, but global liquidity and institutional flows often treat developed markets as more interconnected than we'd like to admit. While the DAX might have a healthier fundamental base in some sectors, a significant tech-led sell-off in the US tends to create a risk-off environment that impacts everything, at least initially. The question is how long that tether remains taut.
While the rate outlooks differ, global capital flows tend to treat equities as a somewhat unified asset class, particularly in times of heightened volatility. The 'independent legs' argument often struggles against that tide, even if the underlying fundamentals suggest otherwise.
The 'global macro tether' is indeed a formidable force, and the DAX, despite local rate outlooks, isn't immune to a significant US tech downturn. While Europe might have some independent legs, they aren't strong enough to completely decouple from such a large market shift, especially with investors de-risking across the board.