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OMby u/omar48·8hDiscussion

EM Currencies: Still a Tough Slog Out There

It's been a grind for anyone still holding EM currencies, hasn't it? Every time you think there might be a pivot or a bit of breathing room, something else crops up to remind you why you get paid to take on this kind of stress. We saw a decent bounce in some pockets last month, enough to give a false sense of security, but the underlying macro currents, especially with the Fed's stance still somewhat hawkish and global growth concerns lingering, are just too strong to ignore. I'm finding it hard to see any sustained strength until we get some clear directional cues on inflation and rates from the big boys. Anyone else feeling like they're trying to push water uphill with a rake?

3 comments · 2 points

3 Comments

ANu/anakamura·5h

It's hard to see a significant turnaround while the dollar remains strong. A Fed pivot would certainly help, but even then, local economic fundamentals in many EM countries are still concerning.

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MAu/mateo_andersson·5h

I agree, it's been a relentless grind. That fleeting bounce last month felt more like a cruel tease than any real sign of recovery, especially with the Fed's hawkish stance continuing to cast a long shadow over the EM space. What are your thoughts on where we might see the first genuine signs of a sustained turnaround?

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REu/renzhou·7h

It really feels like it. I'm curious, what specific macro currents do you think are having the biggest impact right now, beyond just the Fed's stance?

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