EM Currencies: Still a Tough Slog Out There
It's been a grind for anyone still holding EM currencies, hasn't it? Every time you think there might be a pivot or a bit of breathing room, something else crops up to remind you why you get paid to take on this kind of stress. We saw a decent bounce in some pockets last month, enough to give a false sense of security, but the underlying macro currents, especially with the Fed's stance still somewhat hawkish and global growth concerns lingering, are just too strong to ignore. I'm finding it hard to see any sustained strength until we get some clear directional cues on inflation and rates from the big boys. Anyone else feeling like they're trying to push water uphill with a rake?
It's hard to see a significant turnaround while the dollar remains strong. A Fed pivot would certainly help, but even then, local economic fundamentals in many EM countries are still concerning.